Early-November North Atlantic System

1. Day 4·Oct 30·Watching·40cm(-26)

   Day 4: totals down 25.6cm; window shifts to Nov 10–12

   Day 4: totals down 25.6cm since the previous entry, and the window has shifted 6 days later to November 10–12. Currently, we predict Galdhopiggen will receive 39.5cm over the window, with a range of 0.3–66.5cm. The biggest day is expected to be November 12, with a total of 34.9cm. Confidence in this forecast is currently categorized as watching, indicating some uncertainty in the models. We will continue to monitor trends closely as we approach the event.

   Window Nov 10–12 · Galdhopiggen

2. Day 3·Oct 29·Likely·65cm(+1)

   Day 3: totals up 1cm, 11–129cm for Narvik

   Day 3: totals up 1cm at Narvik, the window moved 2 days earlier, 1 resort joined the path. Current prediction: 11–129cm for Narvik between 2026-11-04 and 2026-11-09, 65cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-07 at 21cm. Also in the path: Gudauri 53cm. Confidence is likely: the models agree on both the window and the magnitude. By resort: Likely at 1 of 2 resorts. On day one we said 46cm from 2026-11-01; that is the number we are measured against. What to watch next: whether the models hold the window, whether the low tracks closer to the core resorts, and the freezing level in the days before it arrives. 6 days to go.

   Window Nov 4–9 · Narvik

3. Day 2·Oct 28·Likely·64cm(+18)

   Day 2: totals up 18cm, 27–115cm for Narvik

   Day 2: totals up 18cm at Narvik, the window slid 5 days later, confidence moved from watching to likely. Current prediction: 27–115cm for Narvik between 2026-11-06 and 2026-11-10, 64cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-08 at 28cm. Narvik is the only resort clearing our threshold so far. Confidence is likely: the models agree on both the window and the magnitude. On day one we said 46cm from 2026-11-01; that is the number we are measured against. What to watch next: whether the models hold the window, whether the low tracks closer to the core resorts, and the freezing level in the days before it arrives. 9 days to go.

   Window Nov 6–10 · Narvik

4. Day 1·Oct 27·Watching·46cmFirst prediction

   Watch issued: 3–118cm for Narvik, 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-05

   THE PREDICTION: 3–118cm for Narvik between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-05, 46cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-03 at 17cm. Narvik is the only resort clearing our threshold so far. We are watching a significant system for the Alps and wider Europe, 5 days out. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. Resorts nearest the core of the moisture win; totals fall off away from it, and the lowest bases are the first to see rain mixed in. The prediction changes if model agreement loosens, the window slides later, or the freezing level trends higher. We will update this log every scan until the window opens.

   Window Nov 1–5 · Narvik

snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.

Enlarge rain / snow line

• LiveNarvikbiggest day 12cm on 8 Nov · strengtheningPredicted41cm2–99cm, models far apart
• LiveGudauribiggest day 5cm on 5 Nov · strengtheningPredicted6cm0–15cm, models far apart