Early-November North Atlantic System
1 resort in the path, 7cm at the biggest. Watching — the models see it but do not yet agree closely.
+7CM
Predicted at Bansko
0–24cm, models far apart
Storm
Nov 1–3
1 resort in the path
Peak
Nov 1
3cm at Bansko
Predicted
7cm
Bansko · 0–24cm, models far apart
Confidence
Watching
Updated
Oct 29, 06:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Oct 29, 06:30 UTC
Current prediction: 0–24cm for Bansko between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-03, 7cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-01 at 3cm. Bansko is the only resort clearing our threshold so far. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. On day one we said 34cm for Bansko; that is the number we are measured against. These figures are re-read from the latest model blend; each entry in the log keeps what we said at the time.
Forecast log
Every entry, newest first. Nothing is overwritten.
- Day 2·Oct 29·Watching·47cm(+13)
Day 2: totals up 13cm, 9–122cm for Bansko
Day 2: totals up 13cm at Bansko, the window held. Current prediction: 9–122cm for Bansko between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-03, 47cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-01 at 18cm. Bansko is the only resort clearing our threshold so far. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. On day one we said 34cm from 2026-11-01; that is the number we are measured against. What to watch next: whether the models hold the window, whether the low tracks closer to the core resorts, and the freezing level in the days before it arrives. 3 days to go.
Window Nov 1–3 · Bansko
- Day 1·Oct 28·Watching·34cmFirst prediction
Watch issued: 4–108cm for Bansko, 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-03
THE PREDICTION: 4–108cm for Bansko between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-03, 34cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-02 at 13cm. Bansko is the only resort clearing our threshold so far. We are watching a significant system for the Alps and wider Europe, 4 days out. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. Resorts nearest the core of the moisture win; totals fall off away from it, and the lowest bases are the first to see rain mixed in. The prediction changes if model agreement loosens, the window slides later, or the freezing level trends higher. We will update this log every scan until the window opens.
Window Nov 1–3 · Bansko
Snow by day
Oct 31 – Nov 4, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Banskobase 990 m · summit 2,560 m
7cm snow69mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 2,560 m · rain on the whole mountain
linem
/ raincm · mm
Sat
Oct 31
Rain
Sun
Nov 1
Rain
Mon
Nov 2
Mixed
Tue
Nov 3
Rain
Wed
Nov 4
Mixed
rain low, snow high Mon · rain Sun, Tue
snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
Last updated 2026-10-29 12:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-10-28 with 31cm forecast at Bansko.
