Mid-October Andes System
4 resorts in the path, 43cm at the biggest. Watching — the models see it but do not yet agree closely; likely at 1 of 4 resorts.
+32CM
Predicted at El Colorado
5–76cm, models far apart
Storm
Oct 19–22
4 resorts in the path
Peak
Oct 20
13cm at El Colorado
Predicted
32cm
El Colorado · 5–76cm, models far apart
Confidence
Watching
Likely at 1 of 4 resorts
Updated
Oct 15, 18:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Oct 15, 18:30 UTC
Current prediction: 43cm for El Colorado between 2026-10-19 and 2026-10-22, 43cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-10-20 at 13cm. Also in the path: Valle Nevado 43cm, Lagunillas 33cm, La Parva 32cm. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. By resort: Likely at 1 of 4 resorts. These figures are re-read from the latest model blend; each entry in the log keeps what we said at the time.
Forecast log
Every entry, newest first. Nothing is overwritten.
- Day 3·Oct 15·Likely·32cm(-12)
Day 3: totals down 11.9cm; window holds for El Colorado, Valle Nevado, La Parva
Day 3: totals down 11.9cm since the previous entry, but the window remains intact from 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-21. Current predictions show El Colorado, Valle Nevado, and La Parva each receiving 31.5cm over the window, with ranges of 4.8–76.4cm, 4.8–58.1cm, and 4.8–61.5cm respectively. The biggest day for all resorts is projected for 2026-10-21, with El Colorado expected to see 17.1cm, Valle Nevado 14.6cm, and La Parva 13.8cm. Confidence is likely for Valle Nevado and La Parva, while the trend for El Colorado is weakening. We will continue to monitor the situation closely as we approach the event.
Window Oct 19–21 · El Colorado
- Day 2·Oct 12·Watching·43cm(+10)
Day 2: totals up 10cm, 15–84cm for El Colorado
Day 2: totals up 10cm at El Colorado, the window held, 1 resort joined the path, 2 dropped out. Current prediction: 15–84cm for El Colorado between 2026-10-19 and 2026-10-22, 43cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-10-20 at 13cm. Also in the path: Valle Nevado 43cm. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. On day one we said 33cm from 2026-10-19; that is the number we are measured against. What to watch next: whether the models hold the window, whether the low tracks closer to the core resorts, and the freezing level in the days before it arrives. 7 days to go.
Window Oct 19–22 · El Colorado
- Day 1·Oct 11·Watching·33cmFirst prediction
Confidence watching: 33.2cm for Valle Nevado 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-21
The prediction for the mid-October Andes system shows Valle Nevado leading with 33.2cm, ranging from 6.6–58.6cm. The pattern suggests a favorable setup for snowfall across the region, particularly on October 19, when we expect the highest totals. Valle Nevado, Lagunillas, and La Parva are all in line for significant snow, but confidence remains at 1 of 3 resorts for this event. Valle Nevado and Lagunillas are likely to see the most accumulation, while La Parva's totals are slightly more uncertain. Changes in the forecast could arise from shifts in atmospheric conditions or model updates, which we will continue to monitor.
Window Oct 19–21 · Valle Nevado
Snow by day
Oct 18 – Oct 23, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
El Coloradobase 2,430 m · summit 3,333 m
—cm snow
no daily data
Valle Nevadobase 2,860 m · summit 3,670 m
—cm snow
no daily data
Lagunillasbase 2,200 m · summit 2,422 m
—cm snow
no daily data
La Parvabase 2,653 m · summit 3,574 m
—cm snow
no daily data
No daily series on file for these resorts yet.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
Last updated 2026-10-16 00:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-10-12 with 43cm forecast at El Colorado.
