Early-November Pacific System
3 resorts in the path, 62cm at the biggest. Watching — the models see it but do not yet agree closely.
+62CM
Predicted at Mt. Washington
0–109cm across the models
Storm
Nov 5–9
3 resorts in the path
Peak
Nov 8
28cm at Shames Mountain
Predicted
62cm
Mt. Washington · 0–109cm across the models
Confidence
Watching
Updated
Oct 30, 18:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Oct 30, 18:30 UTC
Current prediction: 0–109cm for Shames Mountain between 2026-11-06 and 2026-11-09, 62cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-08 at 28cm. Also in the path: Alyeska Resort 38cm, Mt. Washington 36cm. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. On day one we said 38cm for Shames Mountain; that is the number we are measured against. These figures are re-read from the latest model blend; each entry in the log keeps what we said at the time.
Forecast log
Every entry, newest first. Nothing is overwritten.
- Day 4·Oct 30·Watching·53cmFirst prediction
Forecast: 53cm for Mt. Washington, 0–123.4cm window Nov 5–9
The prediction for the early-November Pacific system indicates a total of 53cm for Mt. Washington, with a range of 0–123.4cm. Current patterns suggest a favorable setup for snowfall across parts of North America, but confidence levels vary. Mt. Washington stands to benefit the most, while Alyeska Resort and Shames Mountain may see less accumulation, with trends weakening for both. Alyeska is projected to receive 39cm, and Shames Mountain 38cm, but these totals could shift as the event approaches. A change in the storm's trajectory or intensity could significantly alter these forecasts.
Window Nov 5–9 · Mt. Washington
Snow by day
Nov 4 – Nov 10, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Shames Mountainbase 700 m · summit 1,189 m
62cm snow17mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 1,189 m · snow above 1,049 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Wed
Nov 4
Mixed
Thu
Nov 5
Mixed
Fri
Nov 6
Snow
Sat
Nov 7
Snow
Sun
Nov 8
Snow
Mon
Nov 9
Mixed
Tue
Nov 10
Snow
snow Fri, Sat, Sun · rain low, snow high Thu, Mon (above about 1,049 m)
Alyeska Resortbase 76 m · summit 1,201 m
38cm snow9mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 1,201 m · snow above 719 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Wed
Nov 4
Mixed
Thu
Nov 5
Mixed
Fri
Nov 6
Mixed
Sat
Nov 7
Snow
Sun
Nov 8
Snow
Mon
Nov 9
Snow
Tue
Nov 10
Snow
snow Sat, Sun, Mon · rain low, snow high Thu, Fri (above about 719 m)
Mt. Washingtonbase 1,084 m · summit 1,589 m
36cm snow37mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 1,589 m · snow above 1,505 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Wed
Nov 4
Snow
Thu
Nov 5
Mixed
Fri
Nov 6
Mixed
Sat
Nov 7
Mixed
Sun
Nov 8
Mixed
Mon
Nov 9
Mixed
Tue
Nov 10
Rain
rain low, snow high Thu, Fri, Sat, Sun, Mon (above about 1,505 m)
snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
Last updated 2026-10-30 18:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-10-28 with 46cm forecast at Shames Mountain.
