Early-November Pacific System
1 resort in the path, 38cm at the biggest. Watching — the models see it but do not yet agree closely.
+38CM
Predicted at Shames Mountain
0–87cm, models far apart
Storm
Nov 2–4
1 resort in the path
Peak
Nov 2
28cm at Shames Mountain
Predicted
38cm
Shames Mountain · 0–87cm, models far apart
Confidence
Watching
Updated
Oct 30, 18:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Oct 30, 18:30 UTC
Current prediction: 0–87cm for Shames Mountain between 2026-11-02 and 2026-11-04, 38cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-02 at 28cm. Shames Mountain is the only resort clearing our threshold so far. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. On day one we said 43cm for Shames Mountain; that is the number we are measured against. These figures are re-read from the latest model blend; each entry in the log keeps what we said at the time.
Forecast log
Every entry, newest first. Nothing is overwritten.
- Day 2·Oct 30·Watching·38cm(-88)
Confidence watching: 0–82cm for Shames Mountain Nov 2–4
Day 2: the top total dropped 87.8cm since the previous entry, and the window start moved one day later. For the upcoming event, we are forecasting 0–82.2cm for Shames Mountain from November 2 to November 4, with the biggest day expected to be November 2 at 29.8cm. While confidence remains in the watching phase, trends are strengthening, indicating potential for increased snowfall. We will continue to monitor developments closely as the event approaches.
Window Nov 2–4 · Shames Mountain
- Day 1·Oct 29·Watching·126cmFirst prediction
Watch issued: 26–248cm for Alyeska Resort, 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-09
THE PREDICTION: 26–248cm for Alyeska Resort between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-09, 126cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-06 at 30cm. Also in the path: Shames Mountain 43cm, Mt. Baker 43cm, Wolf Creek Ski Area 34cm, and 2 more. We are watching a significant system for North America, 3 days out. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. By resort: Likely at 3 of 6 resorts. Resorts nearest the core of the moisture win; totals fall off away from it, and the lowest bases are the first to see rain mixed in. The prediction changes if model agreement loosens, the window slides later, or the freezing level trends higher. We will update this log every scan until the window opens.
Window Nov 1–9 · Alyeska Resort
Snow by day
Nov 1 – Nov 5, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Shames Mountainbase 700 m · summit 1,189 m
38cm snow25mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 1,189 m · snow above 1,189 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Sun
Nov 1
Mixed
Mon
Nov 2
Mixed
Tue
Nov 3
Mixed
Wed
Nov 4
Mixed
Thu
Nov 5
Mixed
rain low, snow high Mon, Tue, Wed (above about 1,189 m)
snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
Last updated 2026-10-30 18:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-10-30 with 38cm forecast at Shames Mountain.
