Early-November Pacific System
2 resorts in the path, 36cm at the biggest. Likely — the models agree on this one.
+36CM
Predicted at Shames Mountain
11–54cm across the models
Storm
Nov 1–3
2 resorts in the path
Peak
Nov 2
20cm at Silverton
Predicted
36cm
Shames Mountain · 11–54cm across the models
Confidence
Likely
Updated
Oct 30, 18:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Oct 30, 18:30 UTC
Current prediction: 11–54cm for Silverton between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-03, 36cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-02 at 20cm. Also in the path: Wolf Creek Ski Area 30cm. Confidence is likely: the models agree on both the window and the magnitude. On day one we said 32cm for Silverton; that is the number we are measured against. These figures are re-read from the latest model blend; each entry in the log keeps what we said at the time.
Forecast log
Every entry, newest first. Nothing is overwritten.
- Day 2·Oct 30·Watching·38cm(-88)
Confidence watching: 0–82cm for Shames Mountain Nov 2–4
Day 2: the top total dropped 87.8cm since the previous entry, and the window start moved one day later. For the upcoming event, we are forecasting 0–82.2cm for Shames Mountain from November 2 to November 4, with the biggest day expected to be November 2 at 29.8cm. While confidence remains in the watching phase, trends are strengthening, indicating potential for increased snowfall. We will continue to monitor developments closely as the event approaches.
Window Nov 2–4 · Shames Mountain
- Day 1·Oct 29·Watching·126cmFirst prediction
Watch issued: 26–248cm for Alyeska Resort, 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-09
THE PREDICTION: 26–248cm for Alyeska Resort between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-09, 126cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-06 at 30cm. Also in the path: Shames Mountain 43cm, Mt. Baker 43cm, Wolf Creek Ski Area 34cm, and 2 more. We are watching a significant system for North America, 3 days out. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. By resort: Likely at 3 of 6 resorts. Resorts nearest the core of the moisture win; totals fall off away from it, and the lowest bases are the first to see rain mixed in. The prediction changes if model agreement loosens, the window slides later, or the freezing level trends higher. We will update this log every scan until the window opens.
Window Nov 1–9 · Alyeska Resort
Snow by day
Oct 31 – Nov 4, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Silvertonbase 3,170 m · summit 4,111 m
36cm snow2mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 4,111 m · snow to the base
linem
/ raincm · mm
Sat
Oct 31
Snow
Sun
Nov 1
Snow
Mon
Nov 2
Snow
Tue
Nov 3
Dry
Wed
Nov 4
Snow
snow Sun, Mon
Wolf Creek Ski Areabase 3,121 m · summit 3,580 m
30cm snow42mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 3,580 m · snow above 3,396 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Sat
Oct 31
Snow
Sun
Nov 1
Mixed
Mon
Nov 2
Snow
Tue
Nov 3
Dry
Wed
Nov 4
Snow
snow Mon · rain low, snow high Sun (above about 3,396 m)
snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
Last updated 2026-10-29 18:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-10-28 with 36cm forecast at Silverton.
