Late-October Pacific System

1. Day 3·Oct 29·Watching·41cm(-108)

   Day 3: totals down 108cm, 4–75cm for Alyeska Resort

   Day 3: totals down 108cm at Alyeska Resort, the window slid 1 day later, confidence moved from likely to watching, 4 dropped out. Current prediction: 4–75cm for Alyeska Resort between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-05, 41cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-03 at 22cm. Also in the path: Wolf Creek Ski Area 38cm, Silverton 31cm, Shames Mountain 31cm. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. By resort: Likely at 1 of 4 resorts. On day one we said 191cm from 2026-10-30; that is the number we are measured against. What to watch next: whether the models hold the window, whether the low tracks closer to the core resorts, and the freezing level in the days before it arrives. 3 days to go.

   Window Nov 1–5 · Alyeska Resort

2. Day 2·Oct 28·Likely·149cm(-42)

   Day 2: totals down 42cm, 10–318cm for Alyeska Resort

   Day 2: totals down 42cm at Alyeska Resort, the window slid 1 day later, confidence moved from watching to likely, 6 resorts joined the path, 1 dropped out. Current prediction: 10–318cm for Alyeska Resort between 2026-10-31 and 2026-11-08, 149cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-05 at 39cm. Also in the path: Shames Mountain 46cm, Wolf Creek Ski Area 42cm, Silverton 36cm, and 4 more. Confidence is likely: the models agree on both the window and the magnitude. By resort: Likely at 6 of 8 resorts. On day one we said 191cm from 2026-10-30; that is the number we are measured against. What to watch next: whether the models hold the window, whether the low tracks closer to the core resorts, and the freezing level in the days before it arrives. 3 days to go.

   Window Oct 31–Nov 8 · Alyeska Resort

3. Day 1·Oct 27·Watching·191cmFirst prediction

   Watch issued: 44–408cm for Alyeska Resort, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-07

   THE PREDICTION: 44–408cm for Alyeska Resort between 2026-10-30 and 2026-11-07, 191cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-10-30 at 45cm. Also in the path: Whistler Blackcomb 47cm, Wolf Creek Ski Area 33cm. We are watching a significant system for North America, 3 days out. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. By resort: Likely at 1 of 3 resorts. Resorts nearest the core of the moisture win; totals fall off away from it, and the lowest bases are the first to see rain mixed in. The prediction changes if model agreement loosens, the window slides later, or the freezing level trends higher. We will update this log every scan until the window opens.

   Window Oct 30–Nov 7 · Alyeska Resort

snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.

Enlarge rain / snow line

• Silvertonbiggest day 20cm on 2 Nov · newPredicted40cm11–61cm across the models
• LiveShames Mountainbiggest day 28cm on 2 Nov · newPredicted39cm0–99cm, models far apart
• LiveWolf Creek Ski Areabiggest day 18cm on 2 Nov · newPredicted37cm0–92cm, models far apart
• LiveAltabiggest day 22cm on 1 Nov · newPredicted32cm3–75cm, models far apart
• LiveTelluridebiggest day 17cm on 2 Nov · newPredicted24cm9–57cm across the models